Who Would Have Thunk It?

Last weekend there was one game which was of interest to Rider fans and that was the Montreal at BC game. Montreal plays Winnipeg this weekend and Montreal may have wanted to sit some regulars since they don’t play for two weeks.

The thumping they took at the hands of Vernon Adams Jr. has the competitive Jason Maas thinking about how Toronto sleep walked into the eastern final and while Montreal has clinched first in the east, Winnipeg may be a team they face again in the Grey Cup and this would be a good time to send a message to the Bombers and the rest of the league Montreal is not going to be a Toronto part deux this year in the eastern final.

Winnipeg has a decent defense, but their offense can be had with enough pressure, and I think Noel Thorpe, Montreal defensive coordinator is smarting after Montreal basically rolled over for the Lions, lending an air of doubt into Montreal being able to repeat as eastern champion, never mind repeat as Grey Cup champion.

If Montreal had beaten BC, they would have nothing really to prove this weekend, but momentum is a fickle thing in football and the last thing you want to be is the Ottawa Redblacks limping into the playoffs on a losing streak. The trick is balancing this against losing players to injury, much like the Stampeders in the last game of the 2013 season lost defensive tackle Micah Johnson and someone else in their defensive line.

Those injuries made it easier for the Saskatchewan Roughriders to run right through the Stampeders in the Western final and set up for Rider fans a great hometown Grey Cup. Other teams are aware of the knife’s edge between being competitive and losing players for no good reason.

So last week Bo Levi Mitchell led Hamilton to a satisfying 42-20 win over his former team in Calgary and likely solidified his selection as the outstanding player in the eastern conference. 2024 has been a wild year in the CFL and it is not often you get a quarterback for a team not making the playoffs named as a divisional representative for the CFL awards.

At the beginning of the year my assessment of Mitchell is that his shoulder was shot, and it was just ego that was keeping him in Hamilton. When Mitchell got benched, it seemed a confirmation of my assessment, but since them Mitchell has been determined to prove people wrong and I have to say I was probably premature in writing him off this season.

You cannot argue with 5,000 yards passing by a quarterback with a chance to set a new Hamilton franchise record for passing yards in a season. The addition of Chris Jones as defensive consultant seems to have added some steel to the Hamilton defense and assuming receiver Tim White is done with his sessions with a sports psychologist to deal with dropping the ball so much earlier this season, you must think Hamilton is in a pretty good position next season to make some noise.

Hamilton concludes their season in Ottawa on Friday night and Ottawa is desperate for a win. Ottawa fell 38-31 to Toronto last week but without an amazing fourth quarter, the score would not be as flattering to Ottawa.

For Hamilton, this game is their Grey Cup as they want to end the year on a high note, send Mitchell off to the CFL divisional awards with the stats and story to make him a compelling choice, and serve notice they will be around next year. For Ottawa, a 25-point fourth quarter against Toronto is a fine thing, but it ignores the fact their offense was ineffective for most of the game, maybe something that can held against Tommy Condell, the offensive coordinator.

Hamilton has no need to bring in their backups, at least right away, as they want to make some points to the CFL about their team. Ottawa may be getting some guys back from injury, but they are lacking a lot of consistency and could be an easy one and done in the playoffs.

While the final result may not matter in this one, there are several intangibles that bear thinking about. Ottawa is in the playoffs due to them sneaking in under the radar for various teams, surprising them and stacking up the wins. Like most young teams, or teams struggling to get out of playoff slumps, Ottawa does not have much depth so a rash of injuries without the backups being ready to play does not translate into a significant playoff run.

Hamilton can shoot out the lights with their lineup, Ottawa must probably use most of their lineup they had against Toronto last week, and maybe keep some of the injured out of the lineup until the Eastern semifinal. The question is which Ottawa will show: the one that was blown out for three quarters against Toronto or the one that showed up in the fourth quarter to make it close?

For some reason I am going to go with Ottawa in this one, 32-15 because Ottawa desperately needs to convince their fans and themselves, they can be a legitimate playoff contender after missing the playoffs for several years. There may be jobs in Ottawa on the line if Ottawa flat lines into the playoffs and goes out with a whimper in the eastern final.

When jobs are on the line, one of two things happen, or somethings both things happen at once. Either teams rise to the occasion having decided to use this game as a reset, or they fold under the relentless pressure. If Ottawa can stay away from the stupid penalties, they have been gathering like frequent flyer miles, they have a shot.

This may be a good example of hope over experience, but the CFL this year has made it interesting to see how conventional wisdom means absolutely nothing. So, in that spirit, Ottawa 32 Hamilton 15.

The other Friday night game has Toronto go to Edmonton to put the Elk down for this season. The Elk sank like the Titanic in the first part of the season, got rid of Chris Jones and kind of let Tre Ford out for a bit at quarterback, had a bit of a surge and then kind of slid back again.

This game will be fascinating for a couple of reasons. Edmonton is going to start Canadian Tre Ford at quarterback and Ford has not been happy with how he has been used in Edmonton since he has been drafted. Maybe there is a bias against Canadian quarterbacks, and maybe as Gertrude Stein once said of Oakland, there is “No there, there,” when it comes to Ford.

Depending on who Edmonton brings in as GM and head coach, or if they decide to retain Geroy Simon and Jarious Jackson, they will have to decide if they will go all in on Ford being a starting quarterback next year. If Ford shows enough against a strong Toronto defense, I can see the new Edmonton owner throwing money at Ford to keep him there since the Elk are trying to reengage their fan base and Ford can be an exciting player, in spots, when given the opportunity.

For Toronto it will probably be a good time to let the starters blow off the stink in the first half and then rotate people in the second half since this game means nothing. For Toronto it will be a good opportunity to see how their defense handles a quarterback like Ford because Ford and Ottawa QB Dru Brown seem to be somewhat similar, so you can try out some schemes and see how Ford responds.

Edmonton is a combination of misfits and aging veterans probably playing in their last game. The stopgap measure those veterans were supposed to represent is passing and there will be a new team in Edmonton next year. Edmonton would like to go out with a win, but they will also be evaluating players to see who should be coming back and who should be applying at the West Edmonton Mall for a job at the Brick.

Toronto is deeper in talent than Edmonton. Even with the rotations and substitutions expected, Toronto should make this entertaining and emerge with a win to head into the playoffs by a 23-16 score. Uh yeah, it should be cold Friday night in Edmonton so this could be one game they want over and done with as quickly as possible.

I know it is so in these games I have gone to with the home team, but again, Toronto is just too deep in talent to let Edmonton have a courtesy win.

Saturday will have two games that will be fascinating to watch.

Stony Mountain Blue Bombers take their show to Montreal, closing out the regular season where Montreal went into Princess Incestuous Field as an underdog in the season opener and beat them down like a rabid dog.

Until two weeks ago, the Bombers were riding a winning streak but their loss to Toronto has stopped the coronation of the Bombers as first place finishers and the booing of the Bomber offense just confirms the Bomber fans are a spoiled and entitled group after being in the last four Grey Cups and losing two of them.

Stony Mountain will have to play their starters since they are playing for first, and Montreal has a chance to show their fans their loss against BC was an aberration. The key to this game is Montreal’s defense against Stony Mountain’s offensive line which has allowed pressure on Collaros and made him look like an old man waving his fist at a passing cloud.

Montreal coach Jason Maas has been pondering the Argonauts fall from grace from a 16-2 season last year to East Final flops and should be determined to avoid the same fate. A little adversity can be a good thing and if Maas uses the flat performance against BC to gin up his defense, that will make Winnipeg’s offense less than stellar amidst the obnoxious horns of McGill stadium.

The trick will be if Montreal’s offense can recover from its flat performance. Part of the problem against BC is Cody Fajardo may not have enough reps considering he was taking in the birth of his new son, so a bit of a disconnect is probably understandable. Davis Alexander has not lost a game as a Montreal starter, but when he got into the BC game, the result was obviously not going to matter.

Montreal’s passing game may not be on par with what it was at the start of the season, but Montreal has a rushing game and let’s be honest, Montreal will go as far as their defense will take them.

This is going to be a fascinating matchup with two teams that are somewhat mirror images of each other with a strong defense and a middling offense. Winnipeg is playing for first place, but Montreal is playing to throw a monkey wrench into a possible Grey Cup opponent.

I like Montreal’s defense more and I like Montreal to drive the Bombers crazy with a 30-18 win.

Which leaves us with the Rider game that could be the biggest played at Mosaic this year, at least until the next couple weeks. Calgary fell apart against Hamilton 42-20 in what is probably the final stretch of games Calgary will have Dave Dickenson as a head coach.

Calgary has not done a good job of filling holes in their lineup and Dickenson seems to have lost the locker room as head coach. Dickenson has been wearing the GM and head coaching hats and he will probably have to give up the coaching hat this offseason to give the team a fresh start and allow Dickenson to either be a good GM or not.

Personally, I don’t think he will be a good GM because Dickenson loves being involved in the play calling too much because he was a competitor as a player, at least until he got hit by the Riders. However, Calgary needs to have some basis of consistency and Dickenson’s ability to run an organization will get a good workout if he has to learn how to delegate, scout players and work with whoever the next coach is going to be on what kind of players he needs to make the team a winner again.

In an interesting twist, it has been a year since the Riders issued a statement that former coach Craig Dickenson would not be retained following the 2023 season, again losing the locker room as the Riders went winless after Labor Day. So on that anniversary to have the other Dickenson brother also coaching his last game feels a bit from the Twilight Zone.

Calgary will be likely to be freely rotating players and trying to see who is worth bringing back next season. Depending on how the Bombers far against Montreal, the Riders will go with their starters in the first half and either build up a lead like they did against BC and then substitute in the second half until they get comfortable and feel like they have clinched first place.

If the Bombers win, expect the Rider starters in the first half and then free substitutions in the second half as the Riders rest players before the western semifinal next weekend.

I am expecting Calgary to show some pride in this game, they do not want to go into the offseason without any sense of hope, but with PJ Walker not playing at quarterback, apparently because that might screw up any NFL call up he could get this season, Matthew Shiltz and Jake Maier will likely share the duties in an effort to show teams they might be worth bringing in as experienced backups.

The Riders will win 22-9 and clinch first place in the west. I wish I had the cojones of Emperor Palpatine and say it is exactly as I foretold, but lets be honest, none of us saw this coming.

by Greg Urbanoski

Who Would Have Thunk It?

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