Trump’s talk of deporting 240,000 Ukrainians could put pressure on Canada, professor says

McQuinn, who earned his doctorate at the University of Oxford, believes Trump’s remarks may also be a way to pressure Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, given their tense relationship.

“This could also just be additional pressure to put on Zelenskyy,” he said. “Saying not only are we gonna sort of pull back all military aid and intelligence sharing, we’re also gonna start sending your people back that are here as refugees.”

In a recent Oval Office meeting, Trump and Vice-President J.D. Vance accused Zelenskyy of not showing enough gratitude for U.S. support in Ukraine’s war against Russia. They warned that by refusing to pursue a ceasefire, he was “gambling with World War III.”

Impact on Canada

If Trump follows through, McQuinn said Canada could see a surge of deported Ukrainians seeking refuge.

“Canada has accepted almost 300,000 Ukrainians under some sort of refugee status, temporary and otherwise,” he said. “The number we’re talking about from the United States is 240,000, so it’s almost twice what we have accepted now.”

That intake happened under the Canada-Ukraine Authorization for Emergency Travel (CUAET), launched in March 2022.

While Canada has already approved nearly one million applications for Ukrainian refugees, McQuinn said absorbing another large group would be a challenge.

“This would be a pretty significant chunk of extra people on top of that,” he said. “At the same time, that would be a pretty significant change because these people are already here. People are close to Canada, so it would be a significant increase in those numbers for the Canadian government.”

A shifting world order

McQuinn said Trump’s comments reflect a broader shift in global politics, with the U.S. pulling back from its traditional leadership role.

“Right now, the world order as we know it is changing in dramatic ways,” he said. “Canada is trying to navigate that. That is going to mean in many situations, Canada is going to become the place that the United States once was.”

He said Canada will likely become the preferred destination for displaced people as U.S. immigration policies tighten.

“This is kind of the role that Canada has always played,” he said. “But the question just becomes… How much immigration, refugees or otherwise, is the right number for Canada?”

Saskatchewan’s Ukrainian roots

McQuinn said Saskatchewan, which has strong ties to Ukraine, could be particularly affected if deported Ukrainians look to Canada for refuge.

“Saskatchewan has a long and proud history with regard to Ukrainian immigration and supporting Ukraine,” he said.

According to the provincial government’s most recent census, around 13 per cent of Saskatchewan residents can trace all or part of their ancestry to Ukraine, making them one of the province’s major immigrant groups.

“So I suspect Saskatchewan would find itself wanting to support those who came.”

While it might be seen as a burden at some level, he thinks that most people in the province would be very supportive..

What clarity does Canada need?

Asked what clarity Canada should seek, McQuinn said the country must rethink its approach to security, immigration and its global role.

“We have to really begin to start looking in a post-U.S. world,” he said. “The United States is only looking out for itself. We have to take some very serious considerations, whether it be our own security, whether it be our alliance with Europe.”

Canada has long depended on the U.S. for both economic and military security, with about 75 per cent of exports going south of the border.

“Our entire security… is predicated on U.S. military support,” he said. “And in many ways, one of the reasons why our military spending has gone from the highest during the Cold War to the levels it is now is because the United States’ security allowed us basically not to have to worry about funding military matters.”

For context, Canada plans to spend more than $33 billion on defence in 2024-25, about 1.37 per cent of its GDP. In contrast, the U.S. Department of Defense has requested US$849.8 billion for fiscal year 2025 as of March 11, 2024.

McQuinn said Canada must no longer assume the U.S. will guarantee its security.

“It just means that Canada simply can’t rely on that any longer,” he said. “We have to take some very serious considerations, whether it be our own security, whether it be our alliance with Europe, and we have to really begin to start looking in a post-U.S. world.”

He also said Canada must take a more proactive role in defence.

“There have been many people, including myself, who’ve been calling for a long time for Canada and the Canadian government to take defence seriously,” he said.

“This is something that Obama and others talked about a decade ago. So this is not a new thing.”

The federal government has not yet commented on Trump’s remarks or whether Canada would accept more refugees if they are deported from the U.S.

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Kenneth.Cheung@pattisonmedia.com

by Kenneth Cheung

Trump’s talk of deporting 240,000 Ukrainians could put pressure on Canada, professor says

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