Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney arrives to address supporters at his campaign headquarters on election night in Ottawa, Tuesday, April 29, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette

By Glynn Brothen

Election reaction

Saskatchewan Tories cement their ridings at home, but face a changed House in Ottawa

Apr 29, 2025 | 2:16 PM

Despite easily winning their seats, Saskatchewan’s Conservative incumbents will return to a reshaped Ottawa following a national shift towards the Liberals.

Daniel Westlake, a political science professor at the University of Saskatchewan, said while a win was attainable for the Tories, the lead they held in polling three months ago wasn’t exactly secure. Progressive voters aligned on Liberal candidates, pulling votes from NDP candidates and generating enough support to form a minority government.

Several Conservative MP’s shared their disappointment in the aftermath of Monday’s results. Prince Albert MP Randy Hoback, who has held his seat since 2008, said last night was an ‘emotional’ one — noting some familiar faces in caucus won’t be returning.

“I think there’s going to have to be some careful soul-searching there,” Westlake said. “They had voters that really hadn’t voted Conservative in years, perhaps even decades. So, it wouldn’t have taken a lot to shift those voters away from the Conservative Party.”

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The vote split and a rough night for the NDP has made for a Canada with effectively a two-party system.

“I’m struggling to come up with an election [example] that has seen this much of a three-month shift,” Westlake said.

That pendulum swing from what seemed like a very likely Conservative win to a Liberal one was the change in variables for voters, he added. At first, the election was a referendum on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Then after his resignation, the factor was Liberal policy and the cost of living crisis. But once President Donald Trump voiced his opinion on Canada, proclaiming the country would have better success as the 51st state, the change in relationship with our southern neighbours was a new vulnerability for the Conservatives.

“I don’t think they were winning those voters in January because those voters really liked the Conservative Party. I think they were winning those voters because they had frustration with the Liberals and concern over cost of living.”

The variable changed “and suddenly those voters are back with the Liberals,” Westlake said.

Read more: Conservative incumbents hold their seats in Saskatchewan, Far North flips to Liberal

One change for Saskatchewan voters was the Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River riding which elected Liberal Buckley Belanger. And while a Liberal riding is a surprise to see in the royal blue Prairies, Westlake didn’t find that to be an outlier in this election.

“The Liberals should have expected to win that riding just based on the boundary shift and the fact that Buckley Belanger was returning as a candidate. The way the Conservatives win that riding is a vote split between the Liberals and the NDP,” he said.

“From what I can tell, the movement in the northern ridings kind of mirrored the broader trends we saw across the country.”

Although the number of seats divided differently, this election showed strong support for the Conservative Party when it boiled down to the popular vote. The vote percentage split as of 1 p.m. Tuesday was 43.6 per cent Liberal and 41.4 per cent Conservative of a total 19,269,241 votes counted.

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glynn.brothen@pattisonmedia.com