The budget, bail and other bills: Five things to watch for as Parliament returns

Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne said his fiscal plan is set to be released in October.

That’s when Canadians will learn how big the deficit is, how much more is being spent on national defence, and how much is being cut from government departments and agencies that have been told they need to slash spending.

The last time the federal government gave a fiscal update was in December, when it said the 2025-26 deficit had grown to $42.2 billion. The Liberal election platform suggested adding its new spending promises and the impact of U.S. tariffs would push that to $60 billion.

Prime Minister Mark Carney said Sunday that the deficit recorded in the budget will be bigger than it was last year, though he did not offer a specific number.

Carney has also said his version of the budget will also look different: he plans to split the document into capital spending and operational spending, with a pledge to balance the operational side within three years.

Deal or no deal?

Carney is most certainly going to be pressed in the House of Commons on his inability to get a deal with the United States on trade and tariffs.

The summer came and went with no apparent movement despite deadlines set by both sides.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war has plunged Canada into a recession, according to a July report from Oxford Economics, and many experts believe the effects are just beginning to be felt.

Carney likes to remind the nation that “Canada has the best deal of any U.S. trading partner,” but the steel, aluminum, softwood lumber and auto industries are being hit hard.

Carney and Trump are in close contact, the Prime Minister’s Office says, and most recently Canada agreed to remove a set of counter-tariffs that had been in place since March to help those talks along.

On top of that, recent expansions of the trade dispute with China have both canola farmers in the Prairies and lobster fishers on the East Coast worried for the future.

Carney’s parliamentary secretary, Kody Blois, recently travelled to China with Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe.

Poilievre vs. Carney

Conservative MPs will be happy to see their leader, Pierre Poilievre, return to his seat in the House of Commons for the first time in 2025.

After losing his seat in Carleton in the April election, the Tory leader donned a cowboy hat and spent his summer on the hustings in rural Alberta, where he swept to a convincing victory in a byelection in Battle River—Crowfoot.

With that settled, expect a return to form for the Opposition leader when he takes the floor for his first question period opposite Carney.

The matchup was hotly anticipated among politicos back in April, when the pair squared off for a pair of debates in both official languages, but anyone hoping for a knockout punch from the typically feisty Tory leader was met instead with a mostly reserved performance.

Poilievre has pledged that the Conservatives are bringing a new spirit of co-operation to the Hill, and has said his party will support changes that improve the status quo while proposing solutions of their own.

Duelling bail bills

The Conservatives have been applying pressure on the Carney government over what they call rampant, out-of-control crime in Canadian communities.

Crime was a key theme of Pierre Poilievre’s election campaign in the spring, and he’s promised to introduce legislation this fall that will make it harder for people with past convictions and those accused of serious crimes to get bail.

Carney’s Liberal government has similarly promised bail reform, targeting violent crime and organized crime.

It’s a minority government, so either party will have to court support from the Bloc Québécois, the NDP or the Greens if they want the bill to pass.

Poilievre has already said he does not expect any other opposition party will support the Tory legislation.

The Liberals are also aiming to bring in legislation to create safe zones around places of worship.

Minority rule continues

April’s election resulted in Canada’s third-straight minority Liberal government, setting the stage for another busy fall for House leaders from all parties as they navigate cross-partisan negotiations.

The Conservatives helped speed passage of the One Canadian Economy Act in the spring, but Poilievre had harsh words for Carney as his caucus met on Sunday, saying that in the six months since he took office “everything is worse.”

The New Democrats, who had spent more than two years propping up the former Trudeau government with a supply-and-confidence deal, were reduced to just seven members and no official party status in the spring.

Interim leader Don Davies quickly ruled out the possibility of another formal agreement with the government. The party’s small caucus is now fully engaged in the search for their new leader, who is set to be chosen at a convention in March.

Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet said in the spring that he and the other 21 Bloc MPs were willing to give the Carney government some time to settle in.

But Blanchet was also highly critical last week of the Liberals’ fiscal management, and he was coy when asked whether the Bloc wants to try to make a deal with the government.

The Liberals will seek to make up the required number of votes on a case-by-case basis for bills they put forward.

They survived their first test of confidence in the spring with the passage of the throne speech, which was delivered by King Charles, and will have another when the budget comes to a vote.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 14, 2025.

Sarah Ritchie, The Canadian Press

by Canadian Press

The budget, bail and other bills: Five things to watch for as Parliament returns

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