By battlefordsNOW

Wage growth slows as unemployment dips nationally, rises regionally

Nov 2, 2018 | 1:00 PM

The nation’s unemployment rate dipped back down to its four-decade low of 5.8 per cent in October as fewer people are looking for work and job growth remains relatively flat.

According to Statistics Canada’s monthly labour force survey, the nation gained 11,200 jobs last month, coming from an uptick of 33,900 full-time positions and a loss of 22,600 part-time roles. Those participating in the workforce, which includes those actively looking for work, slid to 65.2 per cent from 65.4. This is the lowest since October 1998.

Year-over-year, employment is up by 206,000 positions or 1.1 per cent, thanks to large gains in full-time work.

In a note to clients Friday morning, CIBC senior economist Royce Mendes wrote how the “fairly unremarkable near-consensus 11K gain” was a “surprise,” given recent wild swings in data from the labour force survey this year.

“While a few years ago such a gain would have been considered trend-like, stronger population growth recently means that employment will have to rise faster on average to keep the unemployment rate steady over the longer-term,” he wrote. 

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While employment rose slightly in Saskatchewan, it was relatively steady in most other provinces. 

The province gained 2,500 positions in October, split between 1,600 full-time and 900 part-time jobs, pushing the unemployment rate down to 6.2 per cent from 6.4. Year-over-year, employment is up by 1.7 per cent or 9,600 positions.

In Prince Albert and Northern Saskatchewan, which includes numbers for our region, the unemployment rate jumped up to 7.2 per cent from 6.9 this time last year. 

The increase is in part due to the fact more people are actively looking for work and participating in the workforce — 66.3 per cent as opposed to 64.9 in 2017 — as more people are employed year-over-year — 105,500 up from 103,600.

One data point that will be under the microscope by the Bank of Canada is wage growth, which slowed for its fifth straight month. These numbers feed into the central bank’s decision on interest rates.

Last week, the Bank of Canada bumped its benchmark rate for the fifth time in 15 months to 1.75 per cent. Many anticipate it will continue to do so, though Mendes believes today’s report will not tip the central bank into hiking rates as early as December.

“However, given the more hawkish tone of Poloz and Co. recently, good rather than great data will be all that’s needed for them to resume hiking interest rates in [the first quarter],” he added.

tyler.marr@jpbg.ca

On Twitter: @JournoMarr